Infopaket

Fundamentals of forecasting the world economic conjuncture

ДВС.4.07

Вибіркова дисципліна для ОП

First

2021/2022

8 Semester

3

1) successful mastering of disciplines "International Economic Relations", "International Statistics"; "Methodology of market research", etc. 2) knowledge of the basics of statistical analysis; 3) possession of basic skills of statistical analysis, knowledge of marketing strategies and principles, knowledge of foreign languages to study the world experience of logistics management.

World economic conjuncture. World market. World market conjuncture. Factors of formation of the world market: their main economic indicators Essence, subject and forecasting objects. Historical conditions for the emergence and development of forecasting Simple methods of trend extrapolation Trend forecasting by algorithmic methods Extrapolation of trends Extrapolation based on seasonality index Criteria for assessing the quality and reliability of world market forecasts. Verification of forecasts Qualitative (expert) methods of conjuncture forecasting. A systematic approach to forecasting the world economic conjuncture. New forecasting technologies

1. Negoda A.V., Fundamentals of forecasting world markets: textbook. - Kyiv: PPC "Kyiv University", 2013. -280 p. 2. Negoda A.V., Fundamentals of forecasting world markets. Workshop. - Electronic resource - https://ru.calameo.com/books/0060524381c21471f9d04 3. Negoda A.V., Fundamentals of forecasting world markets. - Electronic resource - https://ru.calameo.com/books/006052438731d4c4563ee 4. Melnik T.Yu. Forecasting of socio-economic phenomena as a tool for substantiation of management decisions // Visnyk of ZSTU. - 2018. - № 2 (84) - http://eztuir.ztu.edu.ua/jspui/bitstream/123456789/7395/1/90.pdf 5. Forecasting of socio-economic processes: textbook for students in the field of training 6.030502 "Economic Cybernetics" full-time education / T.S. Klebanova, V.A. Kurzenev, V.M. Naumov and others. - H .: S. Kuznets KNUE, 2015. - 656 p. 6. Prysenko G.V. Forecasting of socio-economic processes: textbook - http://lib.istu.edu.ua/index.php?p=23&id=546

Work at seminars, performance of individual independent work, module test, written assignments

Semester assessment: 1. Attendance at lectures and seminars - 15 points 2. Work at seminars - 20 points 3. Performing individual independent work - 30 points. 4. Module test - 20 points 5. Written tasks (3 tasks) - 15 points It is obligatory to perform module test and individual independent work. It is possible to receive up to 4 points for a written task of a missed seminar. Final assessment is in the form of a pass-fail examination: the pass-fail examination is given to the student based on the results of work during the semester. Upon receipt of the resulting final number of points from 60 and above the student is credited. The recommended minimum for admission to the pass-fail examination - 30 points. If a student has less than 60 points during the pass-fail examination to achieve the required minimum of points, it is possible to write another version of the module test (subject to cancellation of points for standard module test), working off missed seminars.

Ukrainian