Static forecasting of economic cycles

Course: Economic analysis and statistics

Structural unit: Faculty of Economics

Title
Static forecasting of economic cycles
Code
3.2.1.4
Module type
Вибіркова дисципліна для ОП
Educational cycle
Second
Year of study when the component is delivered
2021/2022
Semester/trimester when the component is delivered
3 Trimester
Number of ECTS credits allocated
1
Learning outcomes
PLO 8. Collect, process and analyze statistical data, scientific and analytical materials needed to solve complex economic problems. PLO9. Make effective decisions under uncertain conditions and requirements that require the application of new approaches, methods and tools of socio-economic research PLO 10. Apply modern information technologies and specialized software in socio-economic research and management of socio-economic systems PLO 11. Identify and critically assess the state and trends of socio-economic development, form and analyze models of economic systems and processes
Form of study
Full-time form
Prerequisites and co-requisites
1. Know: the basic concept of econometric analysis of complex economic phenomena; basic methodological approaches and principles of application of econometric modeling apparatus in applied research; basic types of econometric models; statistical methods for estimating the parameters of the econometric model; technology of statistical testing of various hypotheses; methods of interpreting the results of econometric modeling. 2. Have: skills of building econometric models in various areas of financial, socio-economic processes; skills of analysis of the received forecasts and conclusions for the purpose of development of the further recommendations on advancement of effective economic policy.
Course content
The curriculum consists of two content modules: Module 1 - "Statistical monitoring systems, their use for the study of economic cycles", which addresses the possibility of studying the state of economic cycles. Module 2 - "Synthetic and other indicators, forecasting economic cycles based on information of different types", which reveals the main problems of creating and using various combination indicators, including synthetic, which are used to study socio-economic processes and forecast turning points of economic cycles .
Recommended or required reading and other learning resources/tools
Planned learning activities and teaching methods
The purpose of the discipline is to form students' theoretical knowledge and practical skills in using the methodology of constructing statistical forecasts of economic cycles on the basis of different types of statistical information (both quantitative and qualitative). The educational task of the course is to study the basic methods and techniques of building econometric models and creating complex compositional indicators based on a set of statistical indicators.
Assessment methods and criteria
Forms of student assessment: - semester assessment of 60 points maximum / 36 points minimum: 1. Participation in laboratory work (reports, answers to theoretical questions, practical exercises) - 10 points / 6 points 2. control work - 20 points / 12 points 3. Execution of 2 complex independent works - each on 20 points / 12 points - final assessment in the form of an exam
Language of instruction
Ukrainian

Lecturers

This discipline is taught by the following teachers

Nadiia Yushchenko
Department of Statistics, Information and Analytical Systems and Demography
Faculty of Economics

Departments

The following departments are involved in teaching the above discipline

Department of Statistics, Information and Analytical Systems and Demography
Faculty of Economics