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Static forecasting of economic cycles

3.2.1.4

Вибіркова дисципліна для ОП

Second

2021/2022

3 Trimester

1

PLO 8. Collect, process and analyze statistical data, scientific and analytical materials needed to solve complex economic problems. PLO9. Make effective decisions under uncertain conditions and requirements that require the application of new approaches, methods and tools of socio-economic research PLO 10. Apply modern information technologies and specialized software in socio-economic research and management of socio-economic systems PLO 11. Identify and critically assess the state and trends of socio-economic development, form and analyze models of economic systems and processes

Full-time form

1. Know: the basic concept of econometric analysis of complex economic phenomena; basic methodological approaches and principles of application of econometric modeling apparatus in applied research; basic types of econometric models; statistical methods for estimating the parameters of the econometric model; technology of statistical testing of various hypotheses; methods of interpreting the results of econometric modeling. 2. Have: skills of building econometric models in various areas of financial, socio-economic processes; skills of analysis of the received forecasts and conclusions for the purpose of development of the further recommendations on advancement of effective economic policy.

The curriculum consists of two content modules: Module 1 - "Statistical monitoring systems, their use for the study of economic cycles", which addresses the possibility of studying the state of economic cycles. Module 2 - "Synthetic and other indicators, forecasting economic cycles based on information of different types", which reveals the main problems of creating and using various combination indicators, including synthetic, which are used to study socio-economic processes and forecast turning points of economic cycles .

The purpose of the discipline is to form students' theoretical knowledge and practical skills in using the methodology of constructing statistical forecasts of economic cycles on the basis of different types of statistical information (both quantitative and qualitative). The educational task of the course is to study the basic methods and techniques of building econometric models and creating complex compositional indicators based on a set of statistical indicators.

Forms of student assessment: - semester assessment of 60 points maximum / 36 points minimum: 1. Participation in laboratory work (reports, answers to theoretical questions, practical exercises) - 10 points / 6 points 2. control work - 20 points / 12 points 3. Execution of 2 complex independent works - each on 20 points / 12 points - final assessment in the form of an exam

Ukrainian