Infopaket

Modeling and Forecasting of Social Processes

ОК11

Обов’язкова дисципліна для ОП

Second

2021/2022

2 Semester

4

1.1 Know modern models used in sociology and their classification. 1.2 Know the models of aggregation and segregation. 1.3 Know the models of group decision making. 1.4 Know the models of game theory. 1.5 Know information dissemination models and demographic models. 2.1 Be able to use game theory models for strategic decision making 2.2 Be able to justify and interpret the results of group decisions. 2.3 Be able to interpret mathematical models at the level of description and result.

Distance form

1. Know the basic methods of collecting analysis of sociological information, elements of graph theory and matrix algebra. 2. Be able to work with a computer, find scientific information on the Internet, be able to interpret data. 3. Have basic skills in working with data sets and data visualization methods.

I. Non-numerical models. 1. Models and their classification. 2. Models of segregation and aggregation. 3. Cellular automata and the game "Life". 4. Models of group decision making. II. Numerical models. 5. Game theory. 6. Models of population dynamics and distribution.

1. Gabaix, X. Zipf’s Laws for Cities: An Explanation, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 114, no. 3 (Aug., 1999), pp. 739-767 2. Schelling T. Dynamic models of segregation.-Journal of Mathematical Sociology.-1971, vol.1, pp 143-186 3. Swedberg R. Sociology and Game Theory - Contemporary and historical perspectives, Theory and Society 30: 301-335, 2001 URL: http://people.soc.cornell.edu/swedberg/2001%20Sociology%20and%20Game%20Theory % 20-% 20Contemporary% 20and% 20Historical% 20Perspectives.pdf 4. Breer W.W. Models of tolerant threshold behavior.- Management problems №1, 2016, p.11-20, URL: pu.mtas.ru/archive/Breer_116.pdf 5. Zakharov AV Theory of games in the social sciences: a textbook for universities.- Moscow: Ed. House of the Higher School of Economics, 2015. - 304 pp. (pp. 11-46, 80-99) URL: https://sociology.knu.ua/uk/library/teoriya-igr-v-obshchestvennyh-naukah-uchebnik-dlya- universities

Lecture, practice session, video lesson, distance course, individual work in Moodle

1. Presentation 1 on one of the models of topics 1-4, LR 1.1, LR 1.2, LR 1.3, LR 2.2 – 18 points / 10 points. 2. Test 1 with topics 1-4, LR 1.1, LR 1.2, LR 1.3, LR 2.2 – 8 points / 6 points. 3. Presentation 2 on one of the models of topics 5-6 - LR 1.4, LR1.5, LR 2.2, LR 2.3 – 8 points / 66 points. 4. Test 2 on topics 5-6, LR 1.4, LR 1.5, LR 2.2 and LR 2.3 – 8 points / 6 points. 5. Additions - up to 4 times, all 1 point / 0.5 points – LR 1.1, LR 1.2, LR 1.3, LR 1.4, LR 1.5 – only 4/2 points. 6. Essay LR 1.1 - 4 points / 2 points. final assessment – exam LR1.1 – LR1.5.

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